Bitcoin may have faced a dip on the last trading day of September, but its overall performance for the month still shows a notable upward trend. Despite a 3.7% decline in value on the final day, bitcoin closed September with a significant win, breaking records and defying its usual trend for this time of year.
After briefly climbing past $65,000, bitcoin’s price dropped to $63,451.12, according to Coin Metrics. This decline came as crypto stocks, including Coinbase and MicroStrategy, also saw losses, with Coinbase falling 6.8% and MicroStrategy slipping 4.3%. Yet, these short-term fluctuations didn’t overshadow bitcoin’s broader success.
For the month, bitcoin delivered its best September since 2012, with a 7.9% increase. Historically, September has been a tough month for the cryptocurrency, but this marks its second consecutive positive performance during this period. Over the entire quarter, bitcoin recorded a 2.8% gain, further cementing its resilience in an otherwise volatile market.
Meanwhile, Coinbase finished the month down 2.8% and reported a quarterly decline of 20%. Analysts predict this downtrend could persist, marking the exchange’s worst quarterly performance since the last quarter of 2022. This also reflects the platform’s first back-to-back quarterly loss streak since the early half of 2022.
In contrast, MicroStrategy saw a 27% rise in September and posted a 22.5% increase for the quarter, demonstrating a strong performance in the face of broader market challenges.
Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Surge
Several key factors contributed to bitcoin’s recent rally. During the five days ending September 27, bitcoin gained almost 5%, with net inflows into global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) reaching their highest levels since mid-July. During that same period, Coinbase surged 12%, and MicroStrategy jumped 21%, fueled by broader market momentum.
Data from Bitwise-owned ETC Group revealed that net buying volume in U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exceeded the supply of newly mined bitcoin, signaling strong demand. This surge was partly driven by policy shifts from the People’s Bank of China, which further influenced crypto buying trends.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect
As we head into the final quarter of the year, investors are eyeing a seasonally strong period for crypto and other risk assets. Historically, Q4 has been favorable for bitcoin, and with factors like potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the clarity that could come after the U.S. presidential election, there is optimism that the crypto market will see further gains.
Analysts continue to debate bitcoin’s role—whether as a store of value or a risk asset—but its recent correlation with the S&P 500, rather than gold, hints at its evolving place in the broader market. As interest in crypto ETFs grows, investors are watching closely for bitcoin to benefit from these favorable conditions.
In the coming weeks, the market will also be influenced by external factors, including potential strikes at key U.S. ports and upcoming economic data like the ISM Manufacturing index. However, with its strong September performance, bitcoin has positioned itself for a potentially lucrative close to 2024.
