Bitcoin, the world’s most prominent cryptocurrency, is facing an unprecedented challenge this halving year. Despite expectations of a parabolic bull run, Bitcoin is currently stuck in its longest sideways trading period ever during a halving cycle. Without a significant upward movement within the next two weeks, Bitcoin may set a new record for its longest flat market during a halving year.
Historical Patterns and Current Stagnation
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s price soars after a halving event, a process where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation. This halving, combined with increasing demand, has historically driven Bitcoin into explosive bull runs. However, 2024 seems to be defying this trend.
According to CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s longest recorded stagnation following a halving took 298 days. With Bitcoin now trading sideways for 176 days, the market is closely watching to see if this trend will break.
During Bitcoin’s 2020 halving, the cryptocurrency achieved a return index of 4.05 points—the highest for any halving year. In contrast, 2016’s halving saw a more modest return of 2.26 points. Historically, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs around 240 days after halving events. But this year, in a surprising twist, Bitcoin peaked at $73,737.94 before the halving, accelerating the expected bull run by 260 days.
This rapid peak was followed by a series of corrections, slowing the acceleration period to 60 days. Analyst Rekt Capital has suggested that the market is attempting to further reduce this acceleration, possibly leading to a prolonged sideways trading period.
Re-accumulation and What Lies Ahead
Each halving cycle is followed by a “re-accumulation period,” where Bitcoin’s price stabilizes before launching into a bullish uptrend. This year, however, the re-accumulation period is the longest since 2016. In 2016, Bitcoin traded sideways for 161 days before breaking out. In 2020, it took 164 days. But now, Bitcoin has been in a holding pattern for 176 days.
Rekt Capital predicts that Bitcoin’s price could remain range-bound between $71,000 and $60,000 for another two months. Should this stagnation persist, the re-accumulation range could extend to 236 days, setting a new record for the longest sideways period in halving history.
While Bitcoin’s resilience remains strong, many investors are left questioning when the anticipated bull run will begin, or if this halving year will be remembered as the one that broke the mold.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and readers should do their own research before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and subject to substantial risk.
